The End-of-Year Push Begins

Now that the calendar has turned to September, many leaders will be evaluating their teams’ performance and anticipating issues that could affect their fourth-quarter goals. But more than one thing may get in the way—be it distractions over the US presidential election, an uncertain economic climate, or the ongoing return-to-office debate.

Indeed, experts say, while the months at the end of the year are rarely easy, in 2024 they will present leaders with new challenges. “It’s going to go by extremely quickly, and your key people will be out at inconvenient moments,” says engagement expert Mark Royal, a Korn Ferry senior client partner. 

All of this has many experts offering one key bit of advice: Start the push now. Many workers (and, to be fair, many managers) start losing focus after Thanksgiving. “It’s really important to set the right expectations well in advance, and not wait for the holiday season,” says Shanda Mints, Korn Ferry's vice president for RPO analytics and  implementation. Here are the unique challenges managers face in 2024:

There’s one big distraction.

The summer was filled with plenty of things vying for employees’ attention, but over the next seven weeks, one will likely predominate: the US presidential election. And while there’s growing evidence that workers would prefer that their employers stay out of politics, the subject of the election will creep into every conversation, from meetings to coffee breaks.

Experts say managers should take heed and encourage workers to focus on professional tasks. An off-the-cuff political remark could inadvertently alienate workers and affect team cohesiveness and productivity. Few companies train managers to handle politically polarizing comments—their own or an employee’s—or to address the charged situations they can create, says Kate Shattuck, global co-leader of Korn Ferry’s Impact Investing, ESG and Sustainability practice. “CEOs are well positioned to give values-based reflection and balanced points,” she says. “Managers down the line, however, might not know how to be a voice of calm.” 

Expect fewer new recruits.

Many leaders will have to do more with fewer people. The number of job openings is no longer rising. At the same time, the government has revised downward the number of new professional roles filled over the past year by more than 500,000. The numbers back up much of the anecdotal evidence that suggests that the market for professional jobs in most industries has throttled back considerably. “We basically have a white-collar recession across the board,” says Alan Guarino, vice chairman in Korn Ferry’s CEO and Board Services practice.

What’s more, leaders will have to motivate existing workers, because they’re reluctant to leave. Voluntary job turnover has dipped from 17% in 2022 to 12% now.

Employees are “working scared.”

One-third of employees fear they’ll lose their job before they can find a new one, up from 24% in spring 2023—and 28% in fall 2023—according to a new Harris Poll. “Fear and ambiguity can be very destabilizing, and a huge distraction from the job,” says Tamara Rodman, senior client partner in the Culture, Change and Communications practice at Korn Ferry. 

For employees whose performance is good, managers can also allay concerns about layoffs, mostly by providing regular feedback. “Workers need to know if they’re among the lower performers on the team,” says JP Sniffen, practice leader at the Military Center of Expertise at Korn Ferry. He recommends having consistent, direct conversations about performance.

Employees won’t be working side by side.

Despite repeatedly changing their return-to-office policies repeatedly, many bosses may have given up on the idea—at least for now—that everyone will work full-time in the same place.

According to a recent survey, only 34% of CEOs expect their workforces to be in the office five days a week during the next three years. That’s a precipitous drop from last year, when 62% said they expected everyone back to the office in three years. “There’s one CEO, there are thousands of employees, and the CEO is getting worn down,” says David Vied, global sector leader for Korn Ferry’s Medical Devices and Diagnostics practice.

That puts the onus on leaders to effectively manage teams that only rarely work in the same place at the same time. When everyone is in the office, experts say, managers should prioritize brainstorming and collective work.

There's a very uncertain economic environment.

In the US, inflation seems to have abated, but there have been signs that consumer spending might be slowing down. The Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. Outside the US, two significant wars are being fought and the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness.

Many leaders have already accounted for this uncertainty by pushing back on major decisions—not only on hiring, but also on mergers, reorganizations, AI adoption, and other strategic moves. Other leaders have put their major moves on hold until after the US election. “So many clients are already treading water right now,” Rodman says.

Experts suggest that leaders make time, amid the push to meet fourth-quarter goals, to reflect—to absorb new insight and to weigh it against current business conditions. “Taking time to evaluate what is actually happening can be incredibly valuable,” says Kevin Cashman, vice chairman of Korn Ferry’s CEO and Enterprise Leadership business. 

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