A Tech-Worker Exodus?

For years, the tech worker would receive one to two messages each week from recruiters looking to fill roles. This season, she’s receiving one to two per day, and she’s taking them seriously, despite having just started a new job over the summer.

At a time when much of the job market remains tight, one group of workers appears headed for a heyday in opportunities. According to a new report, a remarkable 44% of tech employees plan to take a new job in the next 12 months. The same survey found that four in ten transitioned into tech from another career. Experts say that a possible exodus of workers could spell serious trouble for the countless firms racing to adjust to AI.

At a minimum, many firms may be forced to cough up much higher pay than they’ve budgeted for. “Frankly, the pay is just going to continue to rise for AI and machine learning,” says Paul Fogel, sector leader in the Software practice at Korn Ferry.

To be sure, tech-sector workers often have short tenures, well below the 3.9-year median for all US employees, as well as high churn rates. But this year presents an inflection point that’s driven by years of cost-cutting maneuvers such as staff reduction and automation. These measures have left tech workers working in smaller teams and shouldering more work—and therefore looking for greener pastures. At the same time, many are straining under return-to-office mandates that have followed years of flexibility around hours and location. “They previously had the most freedom,” says Fogel.

Government data shows that the unemployment rate for tech professionals stands at 2.5%, a four-year low; for all workers, the rate is 4.2%. Broadly speaking, there are two types of tech workers currently eyeing the exits: those with highly in-demand skills, like AI and cybersecurity, and those facing career instability and replacement. Workers in specialties like tech support and software development see their roles increasingly handled by automation or generative AI advancements and may be looking to transfer elsewhere in technology. “These people need to be thinking about their careers,” says Bryan Ackerman, head of AI strategy and transformation at Korn Ferry.

Meanwhile, employees with skills that are much in demand, like AI and cybersecurity, are acutely aware of the value of what they build for firms, and want to see the monetary rewards passed down to them. Companies that don’t embrace generative AI and cutting-edge technology risk being left behind. “Experts want to work at companies that are truly competing in their areas,” says Chris Cantarella, senior client partner in the Global Technology Markets practice at Korn Ferry.

The job market is expected to start humming after the US elections, likely offering a multitude of opportunities for tech workers in fields with shortages. Experts joke that if you ask tech workers whether they’re looking for a new role, even three days into a new job, “the answer is yes,” says Barry Toren, senior client partner in the Financial Officer practice at Korn Ferry. “Everyone’s a free agent now.”

Companies are quickly adopting a new strategy: Rather than focusing on retaining skilled employees long term, they’re emphasizing skills that are needed immediately. “It’s a completely new way of thinking about talent,” says Dan Kaplan, a senior client partner in Korn Ferry’s Human Resources practice. As a result, some firms aren’t especially troubled by the exodus of tech workers, because it offers them an opportunity to hire people with fresh skill sets.

Amid the churn, experts caution that companies need to maintain their focus on training efforts. Untrained workers will quickly turn into “stones weighing down the firm,” says Fogel. Experts say it’s best for firms to maximize the value of their employees—who will themselves prize high-quality training. Training shouldn’t be considered a lost investment; it’s simply the cost of doing business in a field where workers constantly need new skills. “The need to have continuous training is just universal,” says Cheryl D’Cruz-Young, founding member of Korn Ferry’s Sustainability and ESG Center of Expertise.

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