The Not-So-Futuristic Future of Work

You might assume that the hot jobs at the end of the decade will involve AI, cybersecurity, robotics, and other technological advancements. In fact, the jobs projected to be most in demand by 2030 look a lot like those that were in demand in the 1930s.

According to the World Economic Forum’s annual Future of Jobs Report, the future of work doesn’t look so futuristic. The report, which was released this week to coincide with the annual gathering of business, political, and cultural leaders in Davos, contains some startling predictions about where workers are likely to be most needed, on the one hand, or displaced, on the other. Software developer is the only technology job among the top five projected to grow most by 2030, and the other four, surprisingly enough, are decidedly manual in nature: farmer, delivery-truck driver, trade worker, and retail salesperson.

Like several other occupations in the top five, in-store sales was once considered a vanishing vocation. But even with e-commerce and self-checkout, says Korn Ferry senior client partner Ben Frost, retail-business leaders are hiring more salespeople to provide a human touchpoint, offer a better customer experience, and reinvent stores as showrooms. “It seems counterintuitive, but with some roles disappearing due to automation, some retail leaders are choosing to hire more humans,” says Frost.

The supply/demand imbalance for manual labor also factors into job-growth projections over the next five years, says Tanyth Lloyd, global vice president, technology and transformation, for Korn Ferry’s RPO business. To be sure, the report notes, farming and agricultural jobs are expected to grow the most by 2030, driven by the world’s increasing population, the rise of green-transition trends, and the dearth of people entering the field. Rounding out the top five are delivery drivers and trade workers. “Jobs that are sustainable and require human involvement will always rank high on any growth list,” says Lloyd.

Still, that doesn’t mean AI, automation, and other technological advances won’t displace some job categories. In total, the report estimates, 170 million new jobs will be created by 2030, and 92 million will disappear, for a net growth of 78 million jobs. By 2030, the report predicts, demand will decline most steeply for cashiers, administrative and executive assistants, accountants, bank tellers, and data-entry clerks. “The common theme with all those roles is that they can be automated or hugely scaled using AI, without sacrificing the client or customer experience,” says Frost.

Technology’s encroachment on human roles can also be seen in the security-services industry, where more and more businesses are replacing on-the-ground security guards with surveillance tools, such as including cameras and tracking devices, that can be monitored remotely from a central location. Even so, cybersecurity and network intelligence rank among the technological skills projected to grow most rapidly in importance during the next five years. “The decline in demand for physical security guards is being more than offset by the demand for cybersecurity professionals,” says Lloyd.

Lloyd says the job-growth outlook underscores leaders’ attempts to balance the way automation and AI are transforming and informing work with the need for humans to develop new skills to help drive that change. “Understanding where jobs are needed and how they are constructed will help leaders find opportunities and mitigate risks for how those jobs are performed in the future,” says Lloyd.

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