A Whole New Black Friday Emerges

Remember the Black Fridays of yore, when people awoke at 6 AM, drove to a big-box store, and stood in line, hoping to get a $100 flat-screen TV so enormous that it might not even fit in the car? For many families, this was an annual tradition.

Times have changed. The  pandemic made it less imperative to do your holiday shopping in-store. This year, retailers are revamping their approach. “Black Friday is just not what it was five years ago,” says Craig Rowley, senior client partner in the Consumer Sector practice at Korn Ferry. This year, Black Friday is stretched out over five weeks.

The shift comes out of financial necessity: Holiday sales are forecasted to rise just 2.5% to 3.5%, according to the National Retail Federation—well below the ten-year average of 5%. Ultimately, retailers will sell less stock than they did last year, after accounting for inflation and the increased cost of consumer goods. Meanwhile, this year’s late Thanksgiving will delete six days of holiday shopping from the calendar, further adding to the sense of crisis.

Enter a new, expansive Black Friday. “Even before Halloween was over, the stores were full of holiday merchandise,” says retail expert Denise Kramp, senior client partner at Korn Ferry. Black Friday sales at many retailers began on November 1st, and in many cases those sales will last into December. As retailers continue their ongoing efforts to train customers to shop for deals online, Cyber Monday has been more or less incorporated into this roomier schedule.

That’s not all that’s different: A wide range of staples—not just gifts—are part of Black Friday, a reflection of retailers’ recognition that roughly half of shoppers have been hit hard by the rising cost of living and are short on discretionary funds for holiday gifts. There is a calculus to getting shoppers into stores early: Shoppers, well, shop. “People who buy early will also buy more,” says Rowley. This means that shoppers who finish buying their gifts in November will continue to spend in December. It’s thus in retailers’ best interests to lure in holiday customers as early as possible. 

Roughly two-thirds of retailers have announced that they won’t meet their holiday-sales forecasts, says Rowley. But if those numbers hold, don’t expect sudden store closures. “No one is talking about layoffs,” says Rowley. Retail is always a high-churn sector, so retailers have anticipated holiday shortfalls by slowing hiring and watching expenses closely.

Dependence on holiday retail will continue. For numerous retailers—in jewelry, electronics, hobbies, toys, and lingerie, among many others—roughly a third or more of profits come from the last two months of the year (for better or worse, that 3D printer and shimmery dress might not seem appealing in July, but they’re all too easy to toss into your shopping cart come December). “It’s just the time of year when people are in the mood to spend money,” says Rowley.  

Learn more about Korn Ferry’s Consumer Markets capabilities.

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